Tim Hastings - NonHostile (because there's no need)

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The £250 voucher arrived a couple of months ago and I've finally got around to using it to open a Child Trust Fund (CTF) for Abigail. The only problem is that there are millions of different fund providers and they are all slightly different.

It boils down to three choices:
1. A cash deposit account that pays interest - no risk
2. A shares and funds account - value may go up or down plus management charges
3. A stakeholder account (government regulated shares and funds) - value may go up or down, capped fees @ 1.5% (of capital)

Am I risk averse?

Decisions, Decisions
What to do?
The cash account seems too safe, there's no risk, but with interest rates around 4-5% there's little reward.
The shares and funds account are aimed towards experienced investors (not me) plus there are no caps on charges.
This leaves the stakeholder account. This is regulated by the government to eliminate a lot of the risk. First they set a maximum percentage that any provider may charge for management fees, this is 1.5%. They also start 'lifestyling' after 13 years. This means that they gradually transfer the money out of stocks and funds into cash deposits to reduce the exposure to market fluctuations. Very clever.

The only thing that puts me off the Stakeholder accounts is that the charges are deducted from capital yet there is a risk of losing. In a bad year, the fund could lose 25% of its value, but the management fee would be taken regardless. Perhaps I want the moon on a stick, but its would seem fair to me that they can have 1.5% of what they make.

Research
There follows some calculations based on the offerings from HSBC and The Share Centre.
The Share Centre's Invester Account offers discounted investments in four specially selected funds. But with 0.5% of capital in charges (4 times a year, effectively 2%). Their selection of funds is good, but you can invest in any fund or unit trust if you are prepared to pay dealing charges (there are no dealing charges on their selected funds).

Funds available to Share Centre Investment CTF:
1. Close UK Escalator 100 Fund
2. Legal & General UK Index Trust (the only fund Share Centre Stakeholders can invest in)
3. Artemis UK Growth Fund
4. Jupiter Global Managed Fund

HSBC only do a Stakeholder account and the only fund HSBC Stakeholders can invest in is:
5. HSBC UK Growth and Income Fund

Doing some digging into the past performance of these funds is quite bleak for the 5 year picture:

Past returns (%)(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)
One week?  1.30%  1.10%  2.00%  1.1%
Six months?  8.90%  3.10%  11.30%  9.4%
One year?  23.30%  19.60%  34.50%  24.5%
Three years annualized?  12.60%  18.90%  19.40%  12.7%
Five years annualized?  -1.20%  2.10%  -2.90%  1.1%

The Stakeholder Accounts only allows you to invest in one fund only which means you are more exposed to risk. Their charges are 1.5% of capital per year. Plus 'lifestyling' kicks in after 13 years.

Account Type   Best Case  
  (conservative)  
  Worst Case Annual Fee
for £10K
Risk 18 years of £500/year
(my dodgy logic)
Cash Deposit 6% 4% £0 none £14,779
Stakeholder 15% bust £150 single fund £20,000
Stocks/Shared/Funds 15% bust £200   spread across funds   £28,000

Conclusion
For minimum gains and zero risk, take the Cash Deposit.
The Stakeholder account is riskier than the Investor account. Why? Because although it has capped charges, the fund providers only allow you to invest in a single fund that they choose. This means that all your eggs are in one basket and you are more exposed to fluctuations. To minimise the risk, the fund is 'lifestyled', this also minimises your possible gains.

The Investor accounts offer a wider selection of funds (some discounted) but charge a higher management fee. This means that you can spread the money across several funds which minimises your exposure, particularly if the funds selected hedge each other. To minimise risk, start 'lifestyling' the fund yourself.

For the increased cost of the Investment Account, you are buying the opportunity to minimise your risks by spreading your money across diverse funds.

Oh yeah, I almost forgot... past performance is no guarantee of future performance. The value of stocks and shares can go up as well as down which means you could get back less than you invested.

In other words... You pay your money and you take your chances.

I think I will hold my decision for a while pending your advice. If you have any it is always welcome, please post a comment

8 comments, Blog, Thursday, September 1, 2005 20:46

Timeline Navigation for Blog posts
Abigail is now 16 weeks old (made 2 hours later)
Choosing a Child Trust Fund (this post, made Thursday, September 1, 2005 20:46)
Abigail's Christening (made 4 days earlier)


Comments
Call me an old stick in the mud, but I can't help but think of two possible scenarios come 2023, on Abigail's 18th birthday:

(Scenario B)
- Daddy, can I start using my trust fund now?
- Yes sweetheart, you can buy that hovercar! I went for a low risk account, so it isn't going to be the flashiest model ever, but at least it will fly you from A to B.

(Scenario A)
- Daddy, can I start using my trust fund now?
- It was in a high risk account, and there's been... a bit of a problem... You didn't really want a hovercar did you?

Posted by: John on Friday, September 2, 2005 05:03
Good point John.
You seem to have missed out Scenario C…
- Daddy, can I start using my trust fund now?
- It was in a high risk account, and there's been… some good news, it was well managed and its was partly invested in the Hover Car Company and now you're minted. There you go.
Did I tell you I'm an optimist?

Posted by: Tim Hastings on Friday, September 2, 2005 12:15
Yes Tim I have to admit scenarion C did occur to me, but I deliberately omitted it from my argument in an attempt to make my case look stronger. Now it has clearly returned to bite me in the arse - I should have seen that one coming.

Fuzzy logic might suggest that you don't necessarily have to consider this as two polar extremes, but rather that there is a continuous grey area in the middle which can be explored.

So, is it possible to have two trust funds for example? Or perhaps one trust fund and one conventional savings account? In this way you could put a certain percentage of the money in the high risk account, and a certain percentage in the low risk account.

As I've already mentioned, my feeling would be to err on the side of a low risk account - perhaps a 80 / 20 split in favour of low risk.

If you find you are completely incapable of making this decision, then how about interviewing 100 people whose opinion you trust, and asking them how they would divide the money. Then you could just take the average figure and use that!

The added benefit of this method is that any angry confontations on little 'uns 18th birthday can be smoothly avoided, simply by providing Abigail with a list of 100 names and addresses of the people who made the decision on her behalf.

I believe this blame diffusion mechanism is sometimes referred to as "democracy".

Posted by: John on Friday, September 2, 2005 16:13
Not all funds carry the same level of risk. With the investment account you can choose lower risk funds to complement higher risk funds. For example put 50% in corporate and government bonds which are less volatile than shares, but are better than cash deposits.

Posted by: Tim Hastings on Friday, September 2, 2005 16:39
The word "Aarrg!" springs to mind. Decisions... Joc and I have been wondering what to do with Izzie's CTF. I'm erring towards Stakeholder, mainly because it's a tad risky and potentially more rewarding, but in the end not actually my money! As you say, plain old deposit is so uninspiring. Shame we can't put them into Premium Bonds...

Posted by: Nigel on Friday, September 2, 2005 16:56
The acceptability of risk depends on your investment objectives. Is it to pay for an education, a car, a wedding, a holiday with her lover, a deposit on a house?

Abi’s other investments will influence the choice too. Is this part of a balanced portfolio e.g. some cash-based deposit, some stock market and some collectables? Will proportions be varied over time to suit personal circumstances and the economic climate?

Long term, stock markets rise. A managed fund spreading investments to track that growth is a good bet, imho.

Posted by: OB1 on Saturday, September 3, 2005 09:39
Nice one.

The CTFs have to be a long term investment, its the law.
Any monies paid into them cannot be drawn out until Abigail's 18th birthday.

Also, you can only have one CTF because they enjoy capital gains tax exemption (like an ISA).

Good point, there is nothing stopping us from having other investments like normal savings.

Perhaps an opposing bet with John might cover all angles.

Posted by: Tim Hastings on Sunday, September 4, 2005 23:00
If you can't decide between a cash deposit and a stakeholder, try a bit of both. I believe that the 4thekids stakeholder is unique in that it allows you to mix cash and units in the L&G UK Index Fund. You decide the extent to which you are exposed to equities (via the L&G Fund) and you can switch from the fund to cash and back at will.

Posted by: john moorhouse on Monday, September 26, 2005 19:50

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